Hussein Ali Shobokshi
The year 2022 is about to leave in a few days. It has been a year full of action and drama. The least we can say.
A near-global war grabs the headlines and affects politics and the economy. A global epidemic that people coexist with, even if China, the country from which it was initially launched, could not escape from it or get out of the severe precautionary measures that affected its economy, and thus the world economy.
This latter had a severe negative impact on most of the world’s economies and was evident in the poor growth rates and the disappointing performance of the financial markets.
It is no secret that the world has not been able to overcome the coronavirus crisis, nor the Russia’s invasion of Ukraine effects, the supply chain crisis, or the worsening inflation situation; despite many solutions and tools resorted to by central banks around the world. Whether by raising interest rates or agreeing with the World Bank and the Monetary Fund to allow it to print cash without a cover so that it can cover various financial obligations during the severe coercive conditions facing the world.
This makes the statement of Indonesian President Joko Widodo during his hosting of the G-20 summit in his country, which he said briefly, but of great significance, depth and importance: “The year 2023 will be a challenging year, and global chaos may be an obstacle to the return of the economic stability. »… He said those words in the presence of the symbols of the international economic powers, none of them objected to his words, and it was an issue that was explained by the attendees’ approval of what was said.
This makes trying to anticipate the signs and signals of the year 2023 an important and necessary issue.
While many governments worldwide continue to print their currencies without suitable cover for them due to financial obligations related to completing various projects and covering the repayment of major loans, this method will cause significant structural damage to the economies of these countries. It seems that the arena for the next economic boom, which will establish a crucial economic race between the major economic nations, will be the African continent, in which China, the United States and Japan are pumping tremendous amounts of various investments and providing donations and support in all its forms. This movement will cause a qualitative shift in supply and demand components and raise economic growth rates in Africa.
In April next year, India will overtake China as the country with the largest population and with the continued decline in economic growth rates in China. There is a concern in Chinese economics’ circles about the impact of this on China’s plan to reach the largest economy in the world.
There are hot spots that are crucial to watch, such as the repercussions of the internal protests in Iran, which will have a significant impact on the Iranian regime itself. As it is facing the longest, most violent, most consequential and biggest wave of popular protest in its history and this has critical effects on Iraq, Syria and Yemen of course. This reminds us of other soft areas that need to be monitored and follow up on because they are time bombs, such as Taiwan, Kashmir, Western Sahara, Lebanon’s southern borders, and North Korea, and their constant threats to the countries in their vicinity.
The coming year will be a year of unprecedented challenge for the sick man of Europe, as Britain has come to be called. It is expected that many painful economic decisions will be issued that may open the door for other European countries to follow its path, especially as it hints that it is about to put an end to financial support for Ukraine in its war against the Russian invasion of its lands.
Inflation remains the most serious challenge, as the rising cost of living has become an obstacle for most people around the world, and this will cause fears among governments of high rates of riots, crime, and loss of safety.
The 2023 seems to be an optimistic year full of challenges and hardships whereas, it may be a remarkable and vital opportunity for some countries to freeze or even close some profound political differences that may give a comfortable space for breathing and hope. With challenges come opportunities for those who prepare for them well and make good use of them and this is what the year 2023 may provide.
Source : Ashaeq Alawsat