China is expected to account for less than half of global steel consumption in 2024, the first time in six years, according to the World Steel Association.
This is due to the contraction of the country’s real estate sector, which is severely affecting demand for the metal. The World Steel Association’s forecasts indicate a divergence in the future market outlook between China, which has been the main driver of global demand growth for two decades, and other regions active in the steel market, such as South Asia, the Middle East and Latin America.
“China has reached the peak of the structural economic factors supporting steel demand,” Simon Trott, chief executive of Rio Tinto Group, the world’s largest supplier of iron ore used in steelmaking, said in a speech in Melbourne on Friday. “The world will need more steel in the next 20 years than it used in the past 30 years, despite China’s growth.”
China’s consumption is falling
The World Steel Association expects Chinese consumption to fall for the fourth year in a row in 2024 to 869 million tonnes, while demand in the rest of the world will rise 1.2% to 882 million tonnes. The organization also expects China’s share of consumption to decline further in 2025.
The figures reveal how the end of China’s decades-long property and infrastructure boom is reshaping the country’s steel consumption. But they also point to another reason why China’s exports this year are set to hit their highest levels since 2016: surging demand elsewhere.
India’s market is expected to grow 8% this year, after rising 14% in 2023, to 143 million tonnes. Other emerging and developing markets are also set to grow 7% for the second year in a row, according to the World Steel Organization.
The last time the rest of the world’s share of demand exceeded China’s was in 2018. The organization acknowledged risks to its outlook from Beijing’s recent series of economic stimulus measures to support growth, noting “the growing likelihood of greater government intervention and support for the real economy, which could boost Chinese steel demand in 2025.”
