China’s steelmakers are expected to continue exporting large amounts of steel in 2025, potentially exacerbating trade tensions as they grapple with overcapacity and weak domestic demand. The country’s steel exports are expected to exceed 100 million metric tons this year, the highest since 2016, with a 21.2% increase to 80.71 million tons in the first three quarters, according to customs data.
Despite a 3.6% year-on-year decline in production in the first three quarters, China’s position as the world’s largest steel producer remains unchallenged.
The World Steel Association expects global steel demand to rise 1.2% to 1.77 billion tons in 2025, following a three-year downward trend. However, China’s steel demand is expected to fall 3% this year and 1% in 2025, potentially leading to an export surplus.
Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., China’s largest listed steelmaker and a subsidiary of China Baowu Steel Group, exported 5.84 million tons of steel products in 2023, up 46.6% from a year earlier. The company aims to boost its exports to more than 6 million tons this year and surpass 10 million tons annually by 2028. Other major Chinese steel companies have also indicated plans to expand exports in 2025, although specific details have not been disclosed.
Trade frictions are rising over China’s surging steel exports, with countries such as Turkey and Indonesia imposing anti-dumping duties to protect their domestic industries. The number of trade action cases against Chinese steel products has risen to 28 this year, a significant increase from the eight cases in the past three years.
Analysts expect Chinese steel to remain competitive on price, despite concerns about trade disputes and a stronger currency. The fragmentation of China’s export markets, mainly Southeast Asia, the Middle East and South America, could ease trade tensions.
In 2023, China’s steel exports reached $85 billion, with less than 1% going to the United States. However, the Biden administration has called for higher tariffs on Chinese metal products to protect U.S. industries.
Reuters