Iron ore prices on November 15-22, 2024, showed steady growth on major exchanges, which came as a surprise to market participants. January futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange rose by 4.2% to $106.06/t, and on the Singapore Exchange – also by 4.2%, to $100.7/t. Despite the positive weekly trend, prices remain lower than at the beginning of the month due to weak fundamentals.

The main catalyst for growth was the expectation of additional economic stimulus in China. The authorities are actively trying to support the weakened real estate sector, which is a key consumer of steel. Although the news of the bankruptcy of the major developer Evergrande was a cause for concern, positive signals such as easing mortgage requirements and financial support for infrastructure projects have strengthened market optimism. Pre-holiday demand from Chinese steelmakers also contributed to the price increase.

At the same time, high iron ore stocks in Chinese ports remain a deterrent. Traders are closely assessing the balance between current demand and significant supplies from leading exporters such as Vale and Rio Tinto, which are steadily maintaining production levels.

At the end of the week, the market lost some momentum due to rising global economic risks, but remained in the upside zone. Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate in the range of $100-107/t in the near future, depending on the actions of the Chinese government and the dynamics of steel demand. Although the short-term outlook looks positive, the key challenge for the market remains the instability in China’s real estate sector, which limits long-term growth potential.