Ukraine reduced its iron ore exports by 8% year on year in 2025, reaching around 30.99 million tonnes compared with 2024, according to calculations by the GMK Center based on data from the State Customs Service of Ukraine.
China remains the largest traditional importer of Ukrainian iron ore, with shipments totaling 16.41 million tonnes during the year, up 8.7% year on year. By contrast, exports to Slovakia declined by 11.4% to 4.4 million tonnes, while shipments to Poland fell by 18.1% to 4.17 million tonnes.
In December, Ukraine exported about 2.22 million tonnes of iron ore, a slight increase of 0.5% compared with November, but 35.6% lower than in December 2024. Shipments to China amounted to 1.12 million tonnes, down 12.9% month on month and 45.4% year on year. Slovakia imported 318.94 thousand tonnes (-12.9% m/m and -38.4% y/y), while exports to Poland reached 259.39 thousand tonnes, up 51.4% compared with the previous month but 34.4% lower than a year earlier.
In the fourth quarter of 2025, Ukrainian iron ore exports fell by 18.9% compared with the same period of 2024 and by 14.4% compared with the third quarter, totaling 6.85 million tonnes, the lowest quarterly level over the past two years.
Iron ore export revenues amounted to about USD 161.33 million in December, down 4.6% month on month and 40.9% year on year, while full-year revenues reached approximately USD 2.34 billion, a decline of 16.6% compared with 2024. In the final quarter of the year, revenues totaled USD 524.93 million (-16.4% y/y and -3.4% q/q).
The GMK Center expects Ukraine’s iron ore exports to decline by 5% year on year in 2026, or by about 1.5 million tonnes, to 29 million tonnes. This anticipated decrease is attributed to lower iron ore prices in China and reduced competitiveness of Ukrainian suppliers in the Chinese market, amid the launch of the Simandou project in Guinea and a significant rise in shipping and logistics costs. However, part of this decline may be offset by increased demand in the European Union, driven by regulatory restrictions on steel imports. This forecast is based solely on market conditions and does not take military risks into account.
