US investment bank JP Morgan warned that the price of oil could reach $185 a barrel if the European Union decides to impose a speedy ban on the import of oil and natural gas from Russia.

Natasha Kaneva, an economic analyst at the bank, said that any immediate ban on Russian oil would prevent 4 million barrels per day from reaching the European market, and there would be neither enough desire nor enough time to direct this amount of Russian oil to China and India as alternative markets to the European Union.

A gradual moratorium on imports of Russian oil over four months, as the European Union has done with imports of Russian coal, could help avoid any significant disruption to the crude price, Bloomberg News Agency quoted Kaneva saying.

At the same time, the base scenario of the US bank is more conservative, as it is expected to reduce EU imports of Russian oil by 2.1 million barrels per day by the end of this year.

In practice, the abandonment of Russian oil was slower than initial expectations, as the US Bank expects a decline in Russia’s oil exports by 1.5 million barrels per day during the current month, which is 25% less than the initial estimates of the decline.

Moreover, exiting long-term contracts with Russian companies will take time.